I write this article as the rain pours outside my window, like it has been for the last few days and like it will for the next week according to the weather forecast. Well, it’s a La Nina event, what do we expect, nothing unusual about a bit of rain. This is the first wet weather event I’ve experienced since living in Sydney, so I have nothing to compare it to. However, my 70 year old friend who has lived here his entire life said that it is most definitely more intense and extreme than previous La Nina events. Just like the extreme El Nino event – aka the 2019 black summer in which more than 24 million hectares of forest were burned, directly causing 33 deaths and almost 450 more from smoke inhalation, not to mention the 3 billion animals that were killed in the fires.
For most of my adult life I have been aware of climate change, but it had always been something far off in the future, something my future kids and grandkids would most likely have to deal with. 2100 was what were told. It’s now become obvious that the effects of climate change are here already. I don’t need to list all the record -breaking extreme weather events of the last few years, or the fact that tens of thousands of people in Madagascar are living in famine due to no rain in four years – a direct effect of climate change.
Do we really know what’s in store for us?
It can be confusing for the average person to know what exactly is going on with climate change and what’s likely to happen. We’re constantly bombarded with headlines like ‘window for fighting climate change is closing fast’ and ‘last change to save our planet’. These are alarming enough in and of themselves, but still give the impression that it’s not too late, we just need to transition to renewable energy and eliminate some of the carbon in the atmosphere and we’ll be alright.
The Australian Government has launched a PR campaign which aims to inform people about all the ‘green’ technologies that are currently in the pipeline to help Australia reach net zero emissions goal by 2050. The light-hearted video shows the government’s plans for Carbon capture, huge batteries to store excess energy and renewable energy generation from solar, green hydrogen and wind power. As expected, the overall vibe of the video is one of reassurance, making us feel like we can trust the government to ‘solve’ the crisis.
Even mainstream scientists and climatologists have recently been adapting their language to use the word ‘mitigate’ rather than ‘prevent’ or ‘avoid’ when talking about climate change. This is because it was previously thought that tipping points would only be triggered if the earth warmed by 4 degrees. The latest scientific data now indicates that even at our current 1.3 degree rise, tipping points may have already been triggered. At COP26, a limit of 1.5 degrees rise by 2100 was chosen, but evidence suggests that even this will be too high to safely avoid the worst.
Why are tipping points the real issue we should be talking about?
Tipping points are currently being triggered by human induced climate change. Once activated, they can cause a domino or cascade effect, speeding up other tipping points. It could take hundreds if not thousands of years for the earth to reach equilibrium once triggered. Triggering tipping points essentially locks in much quicker temperature increases and more extreme weather. For example the polar ice caps melting, mean there is less reflectivity, causing more heat to be absorbed by the oceans which in turn leads to more melting. This in turn can exacerbate the melting of the permafrost in places such as Siberia, which leads to methane which has been trapped underneath to be released into the atmosphere. Methane is 25 time more potent than Carbon Dioxide and so speeds up the melting which speeds up the release of more methane. You get the idea.
On top of this, is the loss of the worlds forests such as the Amazon which are carbon sinks and so less CO2 is absorbed. The other tipping point which would have dire consequences is the AMOC stopping, the oceanic current in the Atlantic which is responsible for regulating rainfall and temperatures in the region. There is evidence this is slowing down much faster than previously expected. Whilst scientists can’t say for sure that all of the worlds tipping points have been triggered, there is evidence that they all showing signs of being much closer than previously thought. Others, are saying that it’s already too late . It might sound pessimistic, but even if we completely stopped emitting CO2 in 30 years time, the fact that extra CO2 and methane is being released by the earth itself puts us at a high risk of dangerous temperature rises. This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t continue limiting emissions, we just have a bunch of other stuff we need to consider too.
What’s the root cause of Climate Change?
If we were to get philosophical about the issue, and looked at the root cause of climate change, we’d easily be able to identify the true cause as humans taking more from the earth than it can sustain. This has been coined ‘overshoot’ by thinkers on the subject such as Michael Dowd. If we zoom out a step further, we could say that this comes from an anthropocentric world-view which means seeing humanity as the centre of the universe, that we are somehow invincible. This is the true meaning of the religious word ‘idolatry’ – indeed the indigenous people knew this long ago and lived in harmony with the earth.
Success for them was the wellbeing of their environment and it’s biodiversity, it’s plants and it’s animals of which we are included. Their holistic view of the world in which everything is connected, and comes from the same Source, meant that they didn’t want to damage the earth or take too much, because by doing so they’d be damaging themselves.
History tells us that the downfall of civilisations is normal and to be expected. There are many reasons for collapse, but one recurrent reason tends to be running out of resources, usually food, which then leads to wars and mass – migration. Sometimes this was because they took too much, other times it was simply because of climate anomalies. Unfortunately we didn’t take heed of the mistakes of former civilisations, believing somehow that our intelligence could free us from our reliance on the planet to keep us alive. But whilst we might have advanced technology, our civilisation is global, and the problem we have created over the last 200 years is also global, hence the consequences will impact the earth for hundreds, if not thousands of years to come.
So coming back to our current predicament, climate change is a symptom of overshoot. We’d actually need more like 3 planets to fuel our current world. Given that the population is set to increase to 10 billion by 2050, and countries are using more resources as they develop, there is no realistic answer to the problem. Yes, we could avoid the worst if the world literally stopped all industrial activity today, (although that in and of itself would constitute a ‘collapse’). But we’d still have to deal with the dangerous feedback loops and tipping points which are already imminent.
Technology is not a ‘quick fix’
When looking at the big picture, it also raises questions about the ethical and moral issues of using technology in an attempt to maintain the status quo. Since we know that unchecked growth – ie. Industrial Capitalism – is what got us into this mess in the first place, why would we try and maintain this system which clearly doesn’t work?
“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”
– Albert Einstein”
Technology as we know, can be used for good or bad. For example carbon capture, once the technology is refined, could be a great way of helping to remove carbon from the atmosphere. But if it comes as the expense of other more urgent adaption projects or it means that fossil fuel companies can continue to pollute, then it’s value is questionable, if not detrimental. Those who are relying on technology to save us from the worst of climate change, are also hedging their bets that it is adequately refined enough to be able to generate enough energy to power an industrial economy. Currently there are major problems with renewable energy storage, distribution and reliability which is why some countries like China have recently doubled back to coal use.
Why the government won’t deal with the root cause of Climate Change
Fundamentally, the problem is the very system which underpins literally everything in our lives; it influences our culture, values, education system, career choices, the list goes on. This is what really needs to change. However, governments are essentially held hostage by this out of control system, of which there is no single bad actor to pin down. From this perspective, it’s hard to see how there could ever be a top-down led approach to dealing with the root cause of climate change and paving the way to a brighter future. This is because true power in the world is held by the very ones who benefit from things staying the same.
Whilst we might not expect a complete system overhaul in the near future led by the government, we do expect the government to keep us safe, with food in the grocery stores and clean water at a bare minimum. Currently, pretty much all the budget to deal with climate change is spent on mitigation, even though there is much we can do now to make sure we conserve as much biodiversity as possible, and limit human suffering.
We shouldn’t just be focussing on reducing CO2 but instead preparing for what’s just round the corner
Of course, the blatantly obvious initiatives like decommissioning coal-fired power plants should be done without question. However, I would argue that equal, if not more resources should be put into adaption and conservation. The extreme weather events are due to get a lot worse according to scientific evidence. Basically, ocean currents are being affected by rising temperatures, which dictates our weather patterns. We’re currently on track to reach 1.5 degrees of warming by 2030 with current levels of emissions, so it’s almost certain that extreme weather events will continue to get worse.
Some of the risks are obvious, others are less so. As humans reaping the benefits of living in 21st century western civilisation, our worries are likely more to do with things other than fulfilling our basic needs. Not too long in the future, it is highly likely that we’ll see food shortages and famines in many areas, due to multiple harvest failures from drought and soil erosion. Water too, will become more limited in it’s supply. How we fare will depend largely on our economic status and geographical location.
Most of the worst hit areas will be around the equator, and there will likely be mass migration putting stress on other more resilient areas and increasing the risk of wars. If you want a vivid description of what life is likely to be like, just read The Future We Choose by Christina Figueres – although I would add that we are probably past the point of choosing due to the tipping points and feedback loops as mentioned numerous times. This article in The Atlantic looks at previous ages which had a similar temperature to what we’re heading for and might give us some clues as to what to expect. Warning: it’s not light reading!
Something else people don’t often talk about, is the increased risk of nuclear accidents like Fukoshima, which was caused by huge waves hitting the north east coast of Japan. Many nuclear power plants were built on along rivers and coastal areas because they use the water as a cooling mechanism. This is all fine and dandy in a normal climate, but with the altered weather systems and rising sea levels many of these nuclear power plants become sitting ducks to meltdowns. Around 516 million people worldwide live within a 50-mile (80km) radius of at least one operating nuclear power plant, and 20 million live within a ten-mile (16km) radius. These people bear the health and safety risks of any future nuclear accident.
Right now, because we’re on the threshold of runaway climate change, governments really need to be investing more resources into what’s right in front of us, because this shit’s going to get real sooner than we could have imagined. We have seen from the pandemic how governments can act swiftly and enact big changes. I don’t want to sound alarmist, but what we have coming our way will make Covid look like the good old days. There are things we need to do before it gets too late, which are probably just as, if not more important than reducing emissions:
1: Minimise deadliest toxicity – nuclear and chemical
2: Assist plants to move poleward
3: Invest time, energy and resources in conservation and regeneration of biodiversity, learning from indigenous resistance and wisdom
4: Switch to regenerative farming, and urban farming
5: Develop and adapt infrastructure and housing so it can withstand extreme weather
Read my next blog to find out about how we can respond benefitially to climate change on an individual level
Disclaimer: I would like to say that I have used the term ‘climate change’ as an umbrella term, as it’s the one that people are most familiar with. Climate change is just one aspect of our environmental decline.
