Which collapse do we choose?

If the world hadn’t just witnessed Russia invade Ukraine, we might have heard more about the IPCC’s second report. The scientifically validated, peer-reviewed report on the effects of climate change is shocking: The author, Antonio Gutteres makes it clear that to ‘delay is death’ and what’s at stake is ‘a livable and sustainable future for all.’

The unprecidented flooding in my own suburb of the Northern Beaches, as well as many others along the east coast of Australia, is surely a wake up call to the truth behind this scientifically peer-reviewed report. Images of whole towns literally submerged under water bring home the fact that climate change is here already.

We’re told that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees since pre-industrial levels is the problem we have to solve, and the way we do that is with lots of technology to generate our power instead of burning fossil fuels. That doesn’t sound like a big deal, but the truth is what we’re actually dealing with is the potential collapse of our civilization, and the natural systems which we rely on, and there is no quick fix.

As much as we like to deny it, according to the IPCC report there is no way of avoiding suffering, as much damage has already been done:

‘Near term actions that limit global warming to 1.5 degrees would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, but cannot eliminate them all. Some low lying areas appear doomed already.’

‘Science tells us that we’ll require to cut emissions by 45% by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2050’…’But according to current commitments, global emissions are set to increase almost 14% over the current decade.’

The decline has already begun, we’re living it now. At the moment, we don’t know if it will result in full-scale collapse. We do know that business as usual will result in a huge decline of food availability, extreme weather events, sea level rise, dangerous pollution, mass migration and water shortages. Given how unstable the system already is, collapse has to be a realistic option, with the additional burden of population growth and the damaging effects of climate change. We don’t know if this will be a gradual decline or if we’ll go out with a short, sharp bang. If we’re in the first half of our life, then there’s a strong chance we could live to see this happen. But if not in our lifetime, then collapse is a realistic possibility for our children or grandchildren’s lives.

It’s tempting for us to lay down and accept our fate. Perhaps we’ve been environmental activists our whole lives and we’re tired of fighting. Or the problem just seems too big and out of our hands, so insurmountable that the realistic part of us tells us there’s no point hoping for a different outcome. We tell ourselves we may as well prepare for the end.

We have to correctly diagnose the problem before we can have an effective solution

Whilst it’s never a bad idea to live each day like it’s your last, it’s not such a good idea to accept defeat before properly trying. As humans we crave certainty. But environmental and civilization collapse is not something we want to be certain about. Nor is a naive optimism that believes we’ll be OK no matter what. Someone will deal with it, at some point. somewhere.

There has been a lot of hype around creating a green economy – essentially relying on the free market economy, to grow to meet the demand of the consumers, who want to invest in green technologies and products. But whilst the market is good at answering certain needs, climate change isn’t one of them, as this article here spells out. Also, there has to be a recognition that free-market industrial capitalism has largely caused climate change, so using the same approach to solve it, is the very definition of insanity.

The IPCC report does a good job at spelling out how a warming climate will affect the Earth’s systems and our civilization, and it even hints at the cause of it here;

‘Targeting a climate resilient, sustainable world involves fundamental changes to how society functions, including changes to underlying values, world-views, ideologies, social structures, political and economic systems, and power relationships.’

IPCC Report 2022

Unfortunately, analysis into the root cause of climate change is only hinted at in the report, when surely tackling the root cause is the only way of longer term success. Climate change is just one symptom of an economic system which no longer works. What about loss of biodiversity, extinction of species? Focussing only on carbon emissions is like a patient dealing with their depression with medication alone, rather than dealing with the problems causing it.

The downside of seeing a symptom of a system in decline as the problem itself is that it gives out the message that all we have to do is employ lots of technology to replace fossil fuels, and voila we reduce global heating. And this is what the governments around the world are putting all our resources into, in the form of a new ‘green’ economy.

The below graphs show the obvious correlation between industrial output population growth, CO2 emissions, temperature increase and species loss:

It doesn’t take a genius to see that the problems we’re seeing originated with the birth of industrial capitalism. But because most governments in the western world are under the thumb of the Big Corps, with some self-interest thrown in, they attempt to tackle the problem with the same thinking that got us here in the first place, by relying on the power of the economy to fuel the wide-spread adoption of new technologies. Repeating what doesn’t work is the definition of madness. Technology won’t save us. Neither will money. It might cushion us from the worst for a while, but eventually the earth will not be able to sustain us any longer. It is a delusion to believe some new invention would render us independent from the earth.

There is a way forward

There is an answer – although it wouldn’t be without problems, is to individually stop participating in the capitalist system where possible.

But to get behind that, people need to know that this is the root cause. The reason for the confusion? Freemarket, industrial capitalism has been very good for us in many ways. It’s allowed scientific break throughs, enabled technological advancement, discouraged wars, encouraged a flourishing in art, design and literature, has helped develop countries achieve a higher standard of living and enabled a lifestyle for many of us that our ancestors could only have imagined in their wildest dreams. Unfortunately, it’s come at a cost. It’s ruining the very planet we rely on for life itself. Simply put, we’ve been taking far too much, to the point we’re likely to kill ourselves – and much of the biodiversity too.

Aside from the fact it’s wrecking our planet, the system isn’t working for many people across the globe. We only need to watch the news to see of the widening gap between rich and poor, the rising levels of mental health problems and de-stabalisation of countries due to the intervention of foreign economic interests.

According to the latest IPCC, ‘any further delay in concrete anticipatory global action on adaption and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity for all.’ Scientists don’t know the exact amount of time we have left but according to ‘Climate Clock’ we have around 7.5 years left before we use up the 2,900 Gt of CO2 before catastrophic effects become locked-in due to triggering tipping points.

OK, so it’s feasible that a bunch of enlightened leaders will suddenly spring to action, but perhaps they won’t.

Recent research from Leeds University has shown that people in well-off countries can help to avert the climate breakdown, whilst simultaneously helping to starve off the large unethical international corporations. If each and every person in developed nations committed to six key changes, this would account for one quarter of the required reductions needed. According to Tom Bailey, co-founder of the campaign ‘it’s clear that governments and the private sector have the largest role to play, it is equally clear that individuals and communities can make a huge difference…we need all action from all actors now.’

The changes listed in the article – flying only once evry three years, only buying three new pieces of clothing per year, eating a largely plant based diet, keeping electrical items rather than throwing away are great because they’re real, actionable changes we can make now.

Whilst these changes are great for CO2 reduction, equally important is bringing down the bad-actors who are responsible for the worst environmental destruction, greed and inequality. This requires the masses uniting -through peaceful protests, forming unions, choosing not to comply with the status quo, and speaking the truth.

We can’t underestimate the power of the masses. Change can happen very quickly when people unite under a shared appetite for change. The appetite for change exists NOW – we only need to take a look at the universal decline of trust in governments, uprisings and protests to know that people are becoming disillusioned with the status quo. For others, it’s never worked. People waking up to the reality of civilization and ecological collapse might be the final piece to the puzzle needed to mobilize the masses. Enlightened leaders might be more likely to appear, once the masses are receptive and willing to act.

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

Lenin

When it comes to the green movement, taking matters into our own hands has long been associated with making small actions like using disposable coffee cups, composting our food waste, and if wealthy enough, driving electric cars and putting solar panels on our roofs. Whilst helpful, these small actions won’t be enough to bring about the end of industrial capitalism. Bigger life changes – and perspective changes, are needed.

Since we know deep down that these quick fix changes won’t save us, why haven’t we done something about it? Humans have gone from being like any other animal, living for thousands of years as hunter-gatherers, to dominating the globe. This is because of our intelligence, our ability to collaborate, communicate and plan-ahead. Yet it’s obvious that despite this intelligence, we’re not in tune with reality. Reality has gone from giving us a gentle tap to literally whacking us around the head when it comes to being aware of the impact of our actions on the environment.

Why, you might ask, can we be so clever and yet so stupid?

This is where neuroscience and psychology can help us out. Basically, humans use stories to help us navigate reality. These stories can help us work together, they can give us meaning and purpose, but when a story like capitalism becomes divorced from reality, it can be dangerous. The story of capitalism has done so well because it embraces our natural evolutionary tendancy towards growth and proliferation. But in nature when a species becomes too dominant, it reaches it’s limits to growth when it runs out of space and food. The species survives only if population reduces to within carrying capacity, and/or it adapts to live somewhere else.

This is what’s happening to us at the moment. We have already exceeded our limits and are currently borrowing from our future. However, our future’s not set in stone. Unlike animals, we have a developed pre-frontal cortex in the brain, which allows us to make rational judgements and plan ahead, rather than just reacting to external stimuli. It’s time we made use of this executive function, instead of believing that we have no choice but to obey our animalistic instincts, as harnessed by industrial capitalism.

There’s a growing awareness – especially in the younger generations – that something is seriously wrong with defining value with money, especially when it’s threatening our viability as a species through destroying our only home. And the only way out is to put on the brakes – quickly.

The solution – if we can call it that – isn’t a popular one which is why the mainstream media and powers that-be don’t touch this stuff with a barge pole. The answer? Degrowth. This means drastically reducing what we take from the earth to within carrying capacity, limiting our output to necessities, and reducing the population through having smaller families.

It doesn’t take a genius to see that capitalism needs the opposite of reduction to sustain itself. It’s true that such big changes would result in form of engineered collapse. The reason we should opt for a chosen collapse rather than a forced collapse from the outside – is because it’s the only way we can have any hope of a longer-term future for our species.

If we let things carry on the way they’re going, we will permanently alter the chemistry of our planet to such an extent, it could take thousands – maybe even millions of years – for it to recover. Which isn’t that long on a geological timescale, given the earth has been in existence for almost 5 billion years. However, what it does mean, is that our own species – and many others currently alive today – will find it extremely difficult to survive in such inhospitable environment.  How can something new, something more egalitarian, take place on a dead planet?

With an orchestrated degrowth, there will still be suffering. But there will be hope too.

There is no way around this problem, we must go through it. Firstly, we will still experience hunger. In order to ensure the viability of long term food production, we need to switch to regenerative farming. Without industrial farming, there might not be enough food to feed everyone. Currently, there are too many humans on the planet. If we wanted to sustain our current level of consumption, we’d need to stay below 2 billion. With a reduction in consumption, perhaps we’d be OK if we halved our population to 4 billion. We could easily half the population in 50 years just through family planning alone, which is achievable through more targetted education, and availability of contraception. This would limit the amount of suffering from hunger and starvation.

Even with less hungry mouths to feed, there would be a limited and a less varied array of food, and life might be less exciting, as long-haul flights, amusement parks and shopping malls are no longer in operation. Clothing will be worn for years, and water might be limited. But whilst our comfort levels might decrease, if we choose this option at least we can have hope for the future, for our children.

Does it need to be so drastic?

If we all join together, and stopped complying in the consumerist culture causing industrial capitalism to collapse, what would take it’s place? Many older people who were alive during the Cold War, will likely want to cling onto capitalism in its current form, believing that a totalitarian communist regime is the only other option, and obviously that didn’t work. Again, this is not reality, but a story pedalled by society. There are probably many different systems, or revised versions of capitalism, which could be far, far better than our current one. There’s likely no perfect model, and change is always difficult – we have to say goodbye to what’s not working for the masses and for the earth in order to allow for something new.

Industrial Capitalism has only been around for the last 200 years, and in that time we’ve severely degraded our planet. Instead of looking back, now is the time to look forward and imagine the sort of future we really want. We can take what worked from before, build on it, and leave the rest behind. Imagine if our future was based on some form of Localism, with a universal code of conduct. Instead of a system based on hoarding wealth for individual possession, it could be a gift economy where surplus is given to those in need.

Perhaps it’s a further evolution of the Scandinavian model, whereby people’s basic needs are looked after whilst still rewarding innovation and entrepreneurship, but only if it contributes value to life. Any rewards would be capped, to prevent too much inequality. Indigenous wisdom, would be harnessed, and we’d only take as much as the earth could sustainably handle, and we’d practice regeration. In this new world, there would be less reason for wars. Yes, life would be way simpler, but perhaps it would be genuinely happier too.

So what changes can we be making in our lives?

• Stop buying fast food
• Stop buyingfast fashion
• Quit social media, unless being used for good causes
• Work for an ethical company
• Don’t Buy to Let
• Limit air travel. One short-haul every 3 years and one long haul every 8
• Limit car use and only have one economical car per family
• Have less children or no children
• Engage in DIY culture
• Vote wisely
• Educate yourself on alternative economic models. Don’t simply accept narrative of mainstream media without doing your own investigation
• Read and learn new things instead of watching mindless TV
• Reuse and repair instead of always buying new stuff
• Plant new trees and grow your own veggies. Get educated about nature
• Buy local
• Bank ethical
• Reduce eating meat and buy organic where possible
• Downsize your home and only buy things that will add value to your life
• Give away excess wealth to a worthwhile cause
• Join unions, community groups and movements or set up a new one

For big systematic changes to happen, it will start from within. We need good physical, mental and spiritual health to have the desire to make these changes in the first place, and the resilience to follow through when things get tough. If we are in a leadership position, then it’s particularly important we are well mentally and spiritually to make the right choices. How we feel on the inside has a large bearing on our decisions and behaviour, so in some ways the below list is more important to tackle first, or at least in tandem to some of the changes above.

How can we best prepare for such changes emotionally and spiritually?

• Eat healthier. Get educated about nutrition. Cut out processed foods and drink less alcohol. There is evidence that our diet has a big impact not just on our physical body, but on our mental health too
• Take regular exercise. Get outdoors and into nature
• Deal with our addictions: get off unnecessary medications, limit alcohol and drug use. Our brains will be healthier, we’ll be happier and we stop giving our money to big pharmacutical and alcohol companies.
• Slow down. Reduce amount of commitments and carve out time for having fun and simply relaxing
• Work less. Go down to part time hours or move to a company that allows this if possible
• Deal with the problems you can and let go of what we can’t change
• Find meaning and purpose in your life; get involved in a local charity, or community group. Aim for something which will add value to your life and others
• Do more of what you love. You will give out more positive energy and make a positive influence on others if you yourself are fulfilled
• Prioritise strengthening your relationships: family, friends and even pets. When people are on their death beds, they think of relationships not their academic achievements or career success – this isn’t to say these things aren’t important but perhaps they’re just not as important as society makes out
• Prioritise spirituality. Spend time in contemplation and go within. Realise who you really are and who you’re not. Learn to recognise when it’s the ego talking

By getting ourselves well, we’re less likely to operate on autopilot and consume things to fill a void. In turn, we will contribute more positive energy into the family of life which in turn will spur others on to do the same. Having a connection to Source will give us the strong foundation to stay grounded in peace, even when things in the world get harder.  

Some of us might be better equipped to make changes than others, and we’ll have to be kind to ourself and not put too much pressure on doing it all at once. It’s a process. We all have different things to bring to the table, it might be small, it might be big. Knowing that there’s so much we can do in our lives now, can fill us with purpose and mission. The best way to deal with existential anxiety is by taking action, day by day. We can choose the collapse of greed, inequality and expoitation to make way for something better to take root, and it’s something we can embrace with excitement.

Undoubtedly, for there to be a big shift it would need large-scale uptake. The good thing is that we now have instant global communication via the internet. Perhaps once enough people get on board, there will be a cascade effect? Perhaps change can happen non-locally once a certain level is reached? The truth is, if we have the attitude of ‘well there’s no point making all these changes because we need everyone to be on board for it to work’ then we’re aligning our energy with doom, which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even if we’re a realist with little hope of the masses uniting and taking action, at the very least you can rest easy knowing you’ve done your bit.

The environmental crisis is a mirror of the mistake we’ve made

At a deeper level, the reason why Capitalism has led to overshoot, is because it’s divorced from nature. This is a fundamental mistake we’ve made about who we are. The egoic mind has made us believe that we are separate from the earth and from each other. It’s no wonder that the system we developed mirrored this faulty perspective. It’s also not surprising that the symptoms we’re experiencing with climate change are because we’ve separated ourselves from Reality. When we awaken to Reality, if we have an open heart, it’s only natural that there will be grief at what we’ve lost and the suffering we’ve caused. But crisis also becomes an opportunity for awakening to the fact that we are part of that Reality. Yes, we need urgent action to solve the crisis, but it’s only going to succeed if it’s from a place of connection to That which exists within all of us.

‘Don’t let urgency stop you letting life through the biggest doorway of your being.’

Spiritual teacher Joanna Macy

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